布设间距对多孔方型人工鱼礁流场效应影响的数值模拟研究

采用计算流体动力学(CFD)技术,研究了不同布设间距下,多孔方型人工鱼礁周围水流运动的规律,旨在为深入研究人工鱼礁的集鱼原理和海洋牧场建设中人工鱼礁的投放和布设提供更多参考。本研究采用了4种布设间距,分别为0.5、1、1.5和2倍鱼礁高度,基于计算机数值模拟技术,模拟了速度为0.8m/s的水流流经2个礁体的过程,分别观察鱼礁周围水流运动情况。结果显示,多孔方型人工鱼礁内部和周围存在缓流区、背涡流区、上升流区、死水区等有显著特征的区域;多孔方型人工鱼礁上升流的最大速度与来流速度的比值约为0.95倍;多孔方型人工鱼礁周围上升流最大抬升高度与鱼礁高度之比约为2.1;多孔方型人工鱼礁的结构在一定程度上为鱼礁周围的流态多样性提供了较有利的作用;多孔方型人工鱼礁的布设间距对2个鱼礁单体间的旋涡数量和旋涡方向有较大影响,也对涡量大小和涡量分布范围产生影响。研究表明,在一定范围内,布设间距越大,涡量越大,分布范围越广,但超过一定范围后,涡量不再增大,分布范围也不再扩大;多孔方型人工鱼礁的布设间距越大,背涡流在X方向和Y方向的影响面积越大。研究结果清晰地展现了不同布设间距下的人工鱼礁的流场效应,对在特定条件下进行人工鱼礁投放和布设具有重要意义。     

Incorporating spatial autocorrelation into the general linear model with an application to the yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) longline CPUE data

Catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data have often been used to obtain a relative index of the abundance of a fish stock by standardizing nominal CPUE using various statistical methods. The theory underlying most of these methods assumes the independence of the observed CPUEs. This assumption is invalid for a fish population because of their spatial autocorrelation. To overcome this problem, we incorporated spatial autocorrelation into the standard general linear model (GLM). We also incorporated into it a habitat-based model (HBM), to reflect, more effectively, the vertical distributions of tuna. As a case study, we fitted both the standard-GLM and spatial-GLM (with or without HBM) to the yellowfin tuna CPUE data of the Japanese longline fisheries in the Indian Ocean. Four distance models (Gaussian, exponential, linear and spherical) were examined for spatial autocorrelation. We found that the spatial-GLMs always produced the best goodness-of-fit to the data and gave more realistic estimates of the variances of the parameters, and that HBM-based GLMs always produced better goodness-of-fit to the data than those without. Of the four distance models, the Gaussian model performed the best. The point estimates of the relative indices of the abundance of yellowfin tuna differed slightly between standard and spatial GLMs, while their 95% confidence intervals from the spatial-GLMs were larger than those from the standard-GLM. Therefore, spatial-GLMs yield more robust estimates of the relative indices of the abundance of yellowfin tuna, especially when the nominal CPUEs are strongly spatially autocorrelated.     

双层实心异步磁力联轴器的涡流和传动特性分析

为了解双层实心异步磁力联轴器负载运行时的状态,该文采用有限元软件对其进行瞬态分析,得出了磁力联轴器在负载下的涡流分布情况以及扭矩传动特性,分析表明:铜层上涡流呈现涡旋状分布,涡流的回路数可以按磁极数等分为14个回路;内转子上沿径向由轴孔到铜层外边界,涡流密度先是基本不变,然后逐渐增高,在铜层外表面达到最大,从而验证了涡流的集肤效应;沿铜层周向涡流呈周期性变化,周期数为永磁体的磁极对数,且以1对磁极为1个变化周期。然后研究了不同参数对异步磁力联轴器特性的影响,得到了初步的优化设计方案。永磁体的厚度可以选择9～11mm,永磁体磁极对数选择8对极;铜层厚度可在2～5mm范围内选择,铜层轴向长度与永磁体轴向长度之比在1.025～1.1范围内选择较为合适。最后,通过试验得出扭矩随转差率和输入转速的增加而增加,验证了模拟分析结论的正确性,为大功率下的磁力联轴器结构尺寸的选取提供依据。     

Analysis of a Long-term Experiment with Repeated-measurement Models

Long‐term experiments are a classical case of repeated measurements. Traits are measured on the same experimental unit over many years so that correlations arise between the observations made on the same plot in consecutive years. This paper describes the analysis of a three‐crop‐rotation long‐term experiment. We analysed the yields of the crops and the organic carbon content in the topsoil over 30 consecutive years. Several variance–covariance approaches are discussed and the trait‐specific best fit is interpreted. Mixed models are used to describe the structure of the experiment. Both yields and soil organic carbon show a more or less pronounced variance heterogeneity. Especially for yields, the heterogeneity of cycles and years is dominant. The consideration of correlations results in a better model fit in all cases.     

"已实现"波动率理论研究与评价

"已实现"波动率是一种全新的金融波动率测量方法。"已实现"波动率在理论上没有测量误差的无偏估计量,在实证建模方面比其他模型更易于估计参数,同时最优频率的选取对于"已实现"波动率的测量精确度是很重要的。     

开路与闭路涡度相关系统对森林生态系统甲烷通量观测的比较

作为涡度相关技术观测的两种主要技术手段,开路（OPEC）和闭路（CPEC）两种涡度相关系统在观测森林生态系统CH4通量过程中存在较大的不确定性,本研究利用OPEC和CPEC两种涡度相关系统,对黄河小浪底人工混交林CH4通量进行连续观测,选取生长旺季2016年7月24日-8月5日连续14d数据,对比两种观测系统的功率谱和协谱,估算闭路涡度相关系统的延迟时间,并分析其在连续晴天和连续雨天的通量观测结果。结果表明：CPEC系统的功率谱和协谱在所有频率上与OPEC系统基本一致,在惯性副区功率谱符合-5/3相似规律,协谱符合-4/3相似规律;以OPEC系统为“准”标准,CPEC系统观测CH4通量的延迟时间合适流速范围内的5个不同流速（40、37.5、35.5、33.5、31.5L·min-1）分别为4.6、7.7、5.3、10.8和14.3s,平均延迟时间为8～9s;与OPEC观测系统测定的CH4通量相比,CPEC系统观测结果晴天偏低12%;雨天高出32%。OPEC观测系统适用于晴天CH4通量观测。经校正,消除延迟影响后的CPEC观测系统可用于测定雨天CH4通量,以弥补OPEC观测系统缺测的值。两种系统并行观测、相互弥补,可望获得更完整、更高质量的CH4通量数据。     

三江源区退化高寒草甸蒸散的变化特征

为揭示三江源区退化高寒草甸水分收支变化特征,利用涡度相关和微气象方法对青海省果洛州大武镇退化高寒草甸生态系统的年蒸散变化进行了定量研究,并探讨了环境和生物因子对其影响。结果表明:年总蒸散量为481.9mm,年蒸散量约占年降水量的97%。生长季中日均蒸散量为2.3mm·d-1,而非生长季日均蒸散量仅为0.6mm·d-1。温度与蒸散量呈明显的指数关系;该区接收的太阳辐射较强,但净辐射占太阳辐射的比例相对较低(46%),在非冻土时期,蒸散量与净辐射呈线性关系;研究区降水量相对丰沛,与温度和净辐射相比,土壤含水量对蒸散的影响相对较小。本研究说明高寒草甸的退化加剧了生态系统的蒸散量,从而降低了生态系统涵养水分的能力,净辐射和温度是驱动三江源区退化高寒草甸生态系统蒸散最主要的环境因子。     

不同降水年型黄土高原半干旱撂荒草地水分收支特征

以黄土高原六道沟流域半干旱撂荒草地为研究对象,根据2014—2017年连续观测得到的降水量(P)、蒸散量(ET)、土壤贮水量(S)和植被组成等数据,研究了不同降水年型下撂荒草地的水分收支特征。结果显示:(1)观测前期平水年下0—50cm土层土壤贮水量呈现缓慢下降趋势,以第三年的一场暴雨(109.60mm/d)为分界,后期土壤贮水量总体增加,但波动幅度大增,受蒸散量增加的影响,土壤水分消耗明显;(2)年总蒸散量呈逐年升高的趋势,在平水年下,地表蒸散年际变化主要受气候条件影响,丰水年下,地上生物量的作用明显;(3)水分收支呈现季节性,2—6月为撂荒草地的缺水期,7月—次年1月为丰水期,四年观测结果显示草地处于总体水分亏缺状态(总亏缺165.60mm),存在对深层土壤水(50cm以下)的大量消耗。研究结果表明:撂荒草地水分的持续损失是导致撂荒草地发生演替的重要原因,演替过程中植物深层土壤水的大量消耗可能会导致形成的次生草地土壤水分条件更差,需要加强人为干预措施,防止草地再次退化。     

Diurnal and seasonal variations in carbon fluxes in bamboo forests during the growing season in Zhejiang province,China

Bamboo forest is an important forest type in subtropical China and is characterized by fast growth and high carbon sequestration capacity. However, the dynamics of carbon fluxes during the fast growing period of bamboo shoots and their correlation with environment factors are poorly understood. We measured carbon dioxide exchange and climate variables using open-path eddy covariance methods during the 2011 growing season in a Moso bamboo forest(MB, Phyllostchys edulis) and a Lei bamboo forest(LB, Phyllostachys violascens) in Zhejiang province,China. The bamboo forests were carbon sinks during the growing season. The minimum diurnal net ecosystem exchange(NEE) at MB and LB sites were-0.64 and-0.66 mg C m^-2 s^-1, respectively. The minimum monthly NEE, ecosystem respiration(RE), and gross ecosystem exchange(GEE) were-99.3 ± 4.03, 76.2 ±2.46, and^-191.5 ± 4.98 g C m^-2 month^-1, respectively,at MB site, compared with-31.8 ± 3.44, 70.4 ± 1.41,and^-157.9 ± 4.86 g C m^-2 month^-1, respectively, at LB site. Maximum RE was 92.1 ± 1.32 g C m^-2 month^-1 at MB site and 151.0 ± 2.38 g C m^-2 month^-1 at LB site.Key control factors varied by month during the growing season, but across the whole growing season, NEE and GEE at both sites showed similar trends in sensitivities to photosynthetic active radiation and vapor pressure deficit,and air temperature had the strongest correlation with RE at both sites. Carbon fluxes at LB site were more sensitive to soil water content compared to those at MB site. Both onyear(years when many new shoots are produced) and offyear(years when none or few new shoots are produced)should be studied in bamboo forests to better understand their role in global carbon cycling.     

基于XGBoost-ANN的城市绿地净碳交换模拟与特征响应

为分析城市绿地净生态系统碳交换(Net ecosystem exchange,NEE)对环境因子的响应,利用涡度相关法测量了2013—2016年生长季白天的NEE数据,使用XGBoost以及ANN模型对NEE进行模拟和分析,并通过决定系数(R~2)、平均绝对误差(MAE)、均方根误差(RMSE)和一致性系数(IA) 4个指标评价模拟精度。结果表明,当输入因子为光合有效辐射(PAR)、饱和水汽压差(VPD)、空气温度(Ta)、相对湿度(RH)、土壤温度(Ts)、风速(WS)、10 cm处土壤含水率(VWC10)时,模拟效果达到最优。其训练集精度R~2为0. 712,RMSE为4. 394μmol/(m~2·s),MAE为3. 129μmol/(m~2·s),IA为0. 911;测试集精度R~2为0. 748,RMSE为4. 253μmol/(m~2·s),MAE为2. 971μmol/(m~2·s),IA为0. 920。在考虑因子间相互作用后,环境因子对NEE的重要性排序从大到小依次为PAR、VPD、Ta、RH、Ts、WS、VWC10;就单环境因子而言,对NEE的重要性由大到小依次为Ta、Ts、RH。通过计算生态系统净生产力(Net ecosystem productivity,NEP,即-NEE)对主要环境因子(PAR、VPD、Ta)的偏导数可知,生态系统光合作用表观量子效率最大值为0. 087,并且当PAR大于1 200μmol/(m~2·s)时,其不再是影响光合作用的主要因素; VPD偏导数的变化趋势表明,VPD对植物光合作用的影响以抑制性为主,当VPD过大时,偏导数趋近于0,此时植物叶片气孔闭合,抑制光合作用; Ta偏导数的变化趋势说明,随着温度的升高,光合作用速率逐渐大于呼吸作用的速率。研究表明,基于XGBoost与ANN模型能够更为精确地模拟NEE动态,在相关环境因子中,PAR、VPD、Ta是影响NEE变化的主导因子,NEE对主要影响因子的生态特征响应趋势可为理解碳循环关键过程提供参考。